Organisational factors associated with hospital costs and patient mortality in the 365 days following hip fracture in England and Wales (REDUCE): a record-linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture care delivery varies between hospitals, which might explain variations in patient outcomes and health costs. The aim of this study was to identify hospital-level organisational factors associated with long-term patient outcomes and costs after hip fracture. METHODS: REDUCE was a record-linkage cohort study in which national databases for all patients aged 60 years and older who sustained a hip fracture in England and Wales were linked with hospital metrics from 18 organisational data sources. Multilevel models identified organisational factors associated with the case-mix adjusted primary outcomes: cumulative all-cause mortality, days spent in hospital, and inpatient costs over 365 days after hip fracture. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2016, and March 31, 2019, 178 757 patients with an index hip fracture were identified from 172 hospitals in England and Wales. 126 278 (70·6%) were female, 52 479 (29·4%) were male, and median age was 84 years (IQR 77-89) in England and 83 years (77-89) in Wales. 365 days after hip fracture, 50 354 (28·2%) patients had died. Patients spent a median 21 days (IQR 11-41) in hospital, incurring costs of £14 642 (95% CI 14 600-14 683) per patient, ranging from £10 867 (SD 5880) to £23 188 (17 223) between hospitals. 11 organisational factors were independently associated with mortality, 24 with number of days in hospital, and 25 with inpatient costs. Having all patients assessed by an orthogeriatrician within 72 h of admission was associated with a mean cost saving of £529 (95% CI 148-910) per patient and a lower 365-day mortality (odds ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·76-0·94]). Consultant orthogeriatrician attendance at clinical governance meetings was associated with cost savings of £356 (95% CI 188-525) and 1·47 fewer days (95% CI 0·89-2·05) in the hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture per patient. The provision of physiotherapy to patients on weekends was associated with a cost saving of £676 (95% CI 67-1285) per patient and with 2·32 fewer days (0·35-4·29) in hospital in the 365 days after hip fracture. INTERPRETATION: Multiple, potentially modifiable hospital-level organisational factors associated with important clinical outcomes and inpatient costs were identified that should inform initiatives to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of hip fracture services. FUNDING: Versus Arthritis.

Inequalities in provision of hip and knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis by age, sex, and social deprivation in England between 2007-2017: A population-based cohort study of the National Joint Registry.

BACKGROUND: While the United Kingdom National Health Service aimed to reduce social inequalities in the provision of joint replacement, it is unclear whether these gaps have reduced. We describe secular trends in the provision of primary hip and knee replacement surgery between social deprivation groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the National Joint Registry to identify all hip and knee replacements performed for osteoarthritis from 2007 to 2017 in England. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2015 was used to identify the relative level of deprivation of the patient living area. Multilevel negative binomial regression models were used to model the differences in rates of joint replacement. Choropleth maps of hip and knee replacement provision were produced to identify the geographical variation in provision by Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). A total of 675,342 primary hip and 834,146 primary knee replacements were studied. The mean age was 70 years old (standard deviation: 9) with 60% and 56% of women undergoing hip and knee replacements, respectively. The overall rate of hip replacement increased from 27 to 36 per 10,000 person-years and knee replacement from 33 to 46. Inequalities of provision between the most (reference) and least affluent areas have remained constant for both joints (hip: rate ratio (RR) = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [0.56, 0.60] in 2007, RR = 0.59 [0.58, 0.61] in 2017; knee: RR = 0.82 [0.80, 0.85] in 2007, RR = 0.81 [0.80, 0.83] in 2017). For hip replacement, CCGs with the highest concentration of deprived areas had lower overall provision rates, and CCGs with very few deprived areas had higher provision rates. There was no clear pattern of provision inequalities between CCGs and deprivation concentration for knee replacement. Study limitations include the lack of publicly available information to explore these inequalities beyond age, sex, and geographical area. Information on clinical need for surgery or patient willingness to access care were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that there were inequalities, which remained constant over time, especially in the provision of hip replacement, by degree of social deprivation. Providers of healthcare need to take action to reduce this unwarranted variation in provision of surgery.

Mid- to late-term follow-up of primary hip and knee arthroplasty: the UK SAFE evidence-based recommendations.

To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation.

Access to hip and knee arthroplasty in England: commissioners' policies for body mass index and smoking status and implications for integrated care systems.

BACKGROUND: Commissioning policies are in place in England that alter access to hip and knee arthroplasty based on patients' body mass index and smoking status. Our objectives were to ascertain the prevalence, trend and nature of these policies, and consider the implications for new integrated care systems (ICSs). METHODS: Policy data were obtained from an internet search for all current and historic clinical commissioning group (CCG) hip and knee arthroplasty policies and use of Freedom of Information (FOI) requests to each CCG. Descriptive analyses of policy type, explicit threshold criteria and geography are reported. Estimates were made of the uptake of policies by ICSs based on the modal policy type of their constituent CCGs. RESULTS: There were 106 current and 143 historic CCGs in England at the time of the search in June 2021. Policy information was available online for 56.2% (140/249) CCGs. With the addition of information from FOIs, complete policy information was available for 94.4% (235/249) of CCGs. Prevalence and severity of policies have increased over time. For current CCGs, 67.9% (72/106) had a policy for body mass index (BMI) and 75.5% (80/106) had a policy for smoking status for hip or knee arthroplasty. Where BMI policies were in place, 61.1% (44/72) introduced extra waiting time before surgery or restricted access to surgery based on BMI thresholds (modal threshold: BMI of 40 kg/m2, range 30-45). In contrast, where smoking status policies were in place, most offered patients advice or optional smoking cessation support and only 15% (12/80) introduced extra waiting time or mandatory cessation before surgery. It is estimated that 40% of ICSs may adopt a BMI policy restrictive to access to arthroplasty. CONCLUSIONS: Access policies to arthroplasty based on BMI and smoking status are widespread in England, have increased in prevalence since 2013, and persist within new ICSs. The high variation in policy stringency on BMI between regions is likely to cause inequality in access to arthroplasty and to specialist support for affected patients. Further work should determine the impact of different types of policy on access to surgery and health inequalities.

Progression of chronic pain and associated health-related quality of life and healthcare resource use over 5 years after total knee replacement: evidence from a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: As part of the STAR Programme, a comprehensive study exploring long-term pain after surgery, we investigated how pain and function, health-related quality of life (HRQL), and healthcare resource use evolved over 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) for those with and without chronic pain 1 year after their primary surgery. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study prospective cohort study, which followed patients undergoing TKR from two English hospitals for 5 years. Chronic pain was defined using the Oxford Knee Score Pain Subscale (OKS-PS) where participants reporting a score of 14 or lower were classified as having chronic pain 1-year postsurgery. Pain and function were measured with the OKS, HRQL using the EuroQoL-5 Dimension, resource use from yearly questionnaires, and costs estimated from a healthcare system perspective. We analysed the changes in OKS-PS, HRQL and resource use over a 5-year follow-up period. Multiple imputation accounted for missing data. RESULTS: Chronic pain was reported in 70/552 operated knees (12.7%) 1 year after surgery. The chronic pain group had worse pain, function and HRQL presurgery and postsurgery than the non-chronic pain group. Those without chronic pain markedly improved right after surgery, then plateaued. Those with chronic pain improved slowly but steadily. Participants with chronic pain reported greater healthcare resource use and costs than those without, especially 1 year after surgery, and mostly from hospital readmissions. 64.7% of those in chronic pain recovered during the following 4 years, while 30.9% fluctuated in and out of chronic pain. CONCLUSION: Although TKR is often highly beneficial, some patients experienced chronic pain postsurgery. Although many fluctuated in their pain levels and most recovered over time, identifying people most likely to have chronic pain and supporting their recovery would benefit patients and healthcare systems.

Costs of Joint Replacement in Osteoarthritis: A Study Using the National Joint Registry and Clinical Practice Research Datalink Data Sets.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs of primary hip and knee replacement in individuals with osteoarthritis up to 2 years postsurgery, compare costs before and after the surgery, and identify predictors of hospital costs. METHODS: Patients age ≥18 years with primary planned hip or knee replacements and osteoarthritis in England between 2008 and 2016 were identified from the National Joint Registry and linked with Hospital Episode Statistics data containing inpatient episodes. Primary care data linked with hospital outpatient records were also used to identify patients age ≥18 years with primary hip or knee replacements between 2008 and 2016. All health care resource use was valued using 2016/2017 costs, and nonparametric censoring methods were used to estimate total 1-year and 2-year costs. RESULTS: We identified 854,866 individuals undergoing hip or knee replacement. The mean censor-adjusted 1-year hospitalization costs for hip and knee replacement were £7,827 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 7,813, 7,842) and £7,805 (95% CI 7,790, 7,818), respectively. Complications and revisions were associated with up to a 3-fold increase in 1-year hospitalization costs. The censor-adjusted 2-year costs were £9,258 (95% CI 9,233, 9,280) and £9,452 (95% CI 9,430, 9,475) for hip and knee replacement, respectively. Adding primary and outpatient care, the mean total hip and knee replacement 2-year costs were £11,987 and £12,578, respectively. CONCLUSION: There are significant costs following joint replacement. Revisions and complications accounted for considerable costs and there is a significant incentive to identify best approaches to reduce these.

Learning From England's Best Practice Tariff: Process Measure Pay-for-Performance Can Improve Hip Fracture Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate England's Best Practice Tariff (BPT) and consider potential implications for Medicare patients should the US adopt a similar plan. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Since the beginning of the Affordable Care Act, Medicare has renewed efforts to improve the outcomes of older adults through introduction of an expanding set of alternative-payment models. Among trauma patients, recommended arrangements met with mixed success given concerns about the heterogeneous nature of trauma patients and resulting outcome variation. A novel approach taken for hip fractures in England could offer a viable alternative. METHODS: Linear regression, interrupted time-series, difference-in-difference, and counterfactual models of 2000 to 2016 Medicare (US), HES-APC (England) death certificate-linked claims (≥65 years) were used to: track US hip fracture trends, look at changes in English hip fracture trends before-and-after BPT implementation, compare changes in US-versus-English mortality, and estimate total/theoretical lives saved. RESULTS: A total of 806,036 English and 3,221,109 US hospitalizations were included. After BPT implementation, England's 30-day mortality decreased by 2.6 percentage-points (95%CI: 1.7-3.5) from a baseline of 9.9% (relative reduction 26.3%). 90- and 365-day mortality decreased by 5.6 and 5.4 percentage-points. 30/90/365-day readmissions also declined with a concurrent shortening of hospital length-of-stay. From 2000 to 2016, US outcomes were stagnant (P > 0.05), resulting in an inversion of the countries' mortality and >38,000 potential annual US lives saved. CONCLUSIONS: Process measure pay-for-performance led to significant improvements in English hip fracture outcomes. As efforts to improve US older adult health continue to increase, there are important lessons to be learned from a successful initiative like the BPT.

Unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement for patients with multimorbidities: a cohort study using propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting.

BACKGROUND: Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials. OBJECTIVES: Stage 1 - replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 - compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1. DESIGN: This was a cohort study. SETTING: Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data. PARTICIPANTS: Stage 1 - people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 - participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3. INTERVENTION: The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs. RESULTS: In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of < 2 points using propensity score stratification; no significant difference was observed using inverse probability weighting. Unicompartmental knee replacement more than halved the risk of venous thromboembolism [relative risk 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; relative risk 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.96) using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement was not associated with myocardial infarction or prosthetic joint infection using either method. In the long term, unicompartmental knee replacement had double the revision risk of total knee replacement [hazard ratio 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.15 to 3.38) using propensity score stratification; hazard ratio 2.60 (95% confidence interval 1.94 to 3.47) using inverse probability weighting], but half of the mortality [hazard ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; insignificant effect using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement had lower costs and higher quality-adjusted life-year gains than total knee replacement for stage 2 participants. LIMITATIONS: Although some propensity score methods successfully replicated TOPKAT, unresolved confounding may have affected stage 2. Missing Oxford Knee Scores may have led to information bias. CONCLUSIONS: Propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting successfully replicated TOPKAT, implying that some (but not all) propensity score methods can be used to evaluate surgical innovations and implantable medical devices using routine NHS data. Unicompartmental knee replacement was safer and more cost-effective than total knee replacement for patients with severe comorbidity and should be considered the first option for suitable patients. FUTURE WORK: Further research is required to understand the performance of propensity score methods for evaluating surgical innovations and implantable devices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as EUPAS17435. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

We compared the risks and benefits of partial and total knee replacements in NHS patients with a complex medical history who would normally be excluded from randomised trials on this topic. We used information that was collected during hospital appointments for people who had a knee replacement between 2009 and 2016. It is difficult to directly compare the two groups because each individual patient has a different medical history. We tested advanced statistical methods to account for these differences. In stage 1, we showed that some of these advanced statistical methods could replicate the results of a recently published surgical trial using routine data from the NHS. We compared patients in the trial with similar patients who were operated on in the NHS. Three of the proposed methods showed results similar to those obtained from the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT). In stage 2, we used the successful methods from stage 1 to study the risks, benefits and costs of partial and total knee replacement surgery in patients with complex medical histories. Two of the statistical methods found that patients who had a partial knee replacement had less self-reported pain and better function after surgery than patients who had a total knee replacement. All three methods found that partial knee replacement was safer, was associated with a lower risk of blood clots (a known complication of knee surgery) and had lower mortality over 5 years. However, patients who had a partial knee replacement were twice as likely as those with a total knee replacement to need a second surgery within 5 years. We found that partial knee replacements were less costly to the NHS and were associated with better overall quality of life for patients than total knee replacement.

Bisphosphonates to reduce bone fractures in stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease: a propensity score-matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects. OBJECTIVES: The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time. DESIGN: This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching. SETTING AND DATA SOURCES: Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1-3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4. PARTICIPANTS: Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 were eligible. A second estimated glomerular filtration rate value of < 45 ml/minute/1.73 m2 within 1 year after the first was requested for work packages 1 and 3. Patients with no Hospital Episode Statistics linkage were excluded from work packages 1-3. Patients with < 1 year of run-in data before index estimated glomerular filtration rate and previous users of anti-osteoporosis medications were excluded from work packages 1-4. INTERVENTIONS/EXPOSURE: Bisphosphonate use, identified from primary care prescriptions (for work packages 1-3) or pharmacy dispensations (for work package 4), was the main exposure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Work package 1: chronic kidney disease progression, defined as stage worsening or starting renal replacement. Work package 2: hip fracture. Work package 3: acute kidney injury, hypocalcaemia and hypophosphataemia identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, and gastrointestinal events identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink or Hospital Episode Statistics. Work package 4: annualised femoral neck bone mineral density percentage change. RESULTS: Bisphosphonate use was associated with an excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.24) in work package 1, but did not increase the probability of other safety outcomes in work package 3. The results from work package 2 suggested that bisphosphonate use increased fracture risk (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.39) for hip fractures, but sensitivity analyses suggested that this was related to unresolved confounding. Conversely, work package 4 suggested that bisphosphonates improved bone mineral density, with an average 2.65% (95% confidence interval 1.32% to 3.99%) greater gain in femoral neck bone mineral density per year in bisphosphonate users than in matched non-users. LIMITATIONS: Confounding by indication was a concern for the clinical effectiveness (i.e. work package 2) data. Bias analyses suggested that these findings were due to inappropriate adjustment for pre-treatment risk. work packages 3 and 4 were based on small numbers of events and participants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Bisphosphonates were associated with a 12% excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression in participants with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. No other safety concerns were identified. Bisphosphonate therapy increased bone mineral density, but the research team failed to demonstrate antifracture effectiveness. FUTURE WORK: Randomised controlled trial data are needed to demonstrate antifracture efficacy in patients with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. More safety analyses are needed to characterise the renal toxicity of bisphosphonates in stage 3A chronic kidney disease, possibly using observational data. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as EUPAS10029. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The project was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford.

RATIONALE AND AIMS: Bisphosphonates are used to prevent fractures in people with fragile bones. People with chronic kidney disease have a high risk of fracturing, but the safety and effectiveness of bisphosphonates in severe chronic kidney disease is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the benefits (e.g. bone strength improvement and fracture prevention) and the risks of unwanted effects associated with bisphosphonates for people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease. METHODS: Anonymised primary and secondary care electronic medical records data from the UK NHS were used, as well as a Danish equivalent that included bone density scans. Anyone in these databases with a measure of reduced kidney function that suggested moderate to severe chronic kidney disease was eligible, which was > 220,000 people from the UK. Over 20,000 of them used bisphosphonates. Bisphosphonate users were matched to non-users with similar age, sex and other characteristics. RESULTS: Bisphosphonate users had a 12% higher risk of their chronic kidney disease getting worse than non-users. Their risks of other side effects, such as acute kidney injuries and gastrointestinal problems, did not change. Bisphosphonate users had a 25% higher risk of fractures than non-users in the UK database, probably because the matching methods did not create similar-enough groups of users and non-users. However, it was found that bisphosphonate improved bone density in the Danish database. Bone density is a proxy for bone strength, so better bone density should mean fewer fractures. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that bisphosphonate therapy may make moderate to severe chronic kidney disease worse. More studies are needed on how bisphosphonates affect milder chronic kidney disease. Bisphosphonates were associated with better bone strength, but it could not be demonstrated that they reduced fracture risk. More data are required, probably from a placebo-controlled trial, to determine whether or not bisphosphonates prevent fractures in people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease and whether or not this is worth the risk of their chronic kidney disease worsening.

Estimating the population health burden of musculoskeletal conditions using primary care electronic health records.

OBJECTIVES: Better indicators from affordable, sustainable data sources are needed to monitor population burden of musculoskeletal conditions. We propose five indicators of musculoskeletal health and assessed if routinely available primary care electronic health records (EHR) can estimate population levels in musculoskeletal consulters. METHODS: We collected validated patient-reported measures of pain experience, function and health status through a local survey of adults (≥35 years) presenting to English general practices over 12 months for low back pain, shoulder pain, osteoarthritis and other regional musculoskeletal disorders. Using EHR data we derived and validated models for estimating population levels of five self-reported indicators: prevalence of high impact chronic pain, overall musculoskeletal health (based on Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire), quality of life (based on EuroQoL health utility measure), and prevalence of moderate-to-severe low back pain and moderate-to-severe shoulder pain. We applied models to a national EHR database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to obtain national estimates of each indicator for three successive years. RESULTS: The optimal models included recorded demographics, deprivation, consultation frequency, analgesic and antidepressant prescriptions, and multimorbidity. Applying models to national EHR, we estimated that 31.9% of adults (≥35 years) presenting with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal disorders in England in 2016/17 experienced high impact chronic pain. Estimated population health levels were worse in women, older aged and those in the most deprived neighbourhoods, and changed little over 3 years. CONCLUSION: National and subnational estimates for a range of subjective indicators of non-inflammatory musculoskeletal health conditions can be obtained using information from routine electronic health records.

Quantifying poor working equid welfare in Nepalese brick kilns using a welfare assessment tool.

BACKGROUND: Across Asia the brick-kiln industry is expanding. In Nepal, urban dwelling has increased in recent years, raising requirement for low-cost, mass produced bricks to meet the population needs. Working equids (WEs) play a key role in non-mechanised kilns. Assessing the welfare of these equids is the starting point to addressing concerns. In line with One Welfare principles, the health and welfare of animals, people and the kiln environment are interlinked. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In December 2019, 119 WEs were assessed in seven brick kilns in three districts of Nepal, using the Equid Assessment Research and Scoping tool, developed by The Donkey Sanctuary. The objective was to measure welfare at the start of the brick kiln season. RESULTS: Horses were the predominant species of WE. Hazardous housing and environments were seen in all kilns. Behaviour responses were mixed. Owner responses and animal examination indicated poor working conditions. Signs of harmful practice were evident in most animals. The majority were underweight, with poor general health, skin alterations and musculoskeletal issues. CONCLUSION: The welfare of equids prior to starting brick kiln work is poor, posing significant concerns for the actual working period. Intervention to enhance health and welfare is required.

The Welfare Aggregation and Guidance (WAG) Tool: A New Method to Summarize Global Welfare Assessment Data for Equids.

Animal welfare can be represented by an array of indicators. There is, however, increasing demand for concise welfare assessments that can be easily communicated and compared. Previous methods to aggregate welfare assessments have focused on livestock systems and produced a single welfare score, which may not represent all aspects of welfare. We propose an aggregation method for the recently developed Equid Assessment Research and Scoping (EARS) welfare assessment tool that results in grades for five welfare categories: housing conditions, working conditions, health, nutrition, and behavior. We overcome the problems associated with existing approaches by using a single aggregation method (decision trees) that incorporates the most important welfare indicators in a single step. The process aims to identify equids with the poorest welfare and aid decision-making when allocating resources. We demonstrate its application using a case study of over 6000 equids across Europe and Asia, where equids in India and Pakistan had the poorest welfare status in terms of health (respiratory disease and open wounds) and behavior (signs of fear and distress, and limb tethering practices). We recommend identification of the specific causes of these issues, using either existing detailed welfare data or through issue-specific assessments by an appropriate professional, to guide the development of appropriate interventions and, ultimately, improve equid welfare.

Equid Assessment, Research and Scoping (EARS): The Development and Implementation of a New Equid Welfare Assessment and Monitoring Tool.

The assessment of animal welfare poses numerous challenges, yet an emerging approach is the consolidation of existing knowledge into new frameworks which can offer standardised approaches to welfare assessment across a variety of contexts. Multiple tools exist for measuring the welfare of equids, but such tools have typically been developed for specific contexts. There is no 'one size fits all' which means that resulting datasets are generally non-comparable, creating a barrier to knowledge-sharing and collaboration between the many organisations working to improve equid welfare around the globe. To address this, we developed the Equid Assessment, Research and Scoping (EARS) tool, which incorporates pre-existing validated welfare assessment methods alongside new welfare indicators to deliver a larger and more comprehensive series of welfare indicators than currently exists, creating a single resource that can be used to assess equid welfare in any context. We field-trialled three welfare assessment protocols within the EARS tool, and applied these to welfare assessment of equids in a variety of contexts across nineteen countries. The EARS tool proved a useful, versatile and rapid method for collecting welfare assessment data and we collected 7464 welfare assessments in a period of fifteen months. We evaluate the EARS tool and provide ideas for future development.

Enhanced recovery following hip and knee arthroplasty: a systematic review of cost-effectiveness evidence.

OBJECTIVES: To assess cost-effectiveness of enhanced recovery pathways following total hip and knee arthroplasties. Secondary objectives were to report on quality of studies and identify research gaps for future work. DESIGN: Systematic review of cost-utility analyses. DATA SOURCES: Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, the National Health Service Economic Evaluations Database and EconLit, January 2000 to August 2019. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: English-language peer-reviewed cost-utility analyses of enhanced recovery pathways, or components of one, compared with usual care, in patients having total hip or knee arthroplasties for osteoarthritis. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data extracted by three reviewers with disagreements resolved by a fourth. Study quality assessed using the Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list, the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and Assessment of the Validation Status of Health-Economic decision models tools; for trial-based studies the Cochrane Collaboration's tool to assess risk of bias. No quantitative synthesis was undertaken. RESULTS: We identified 17 studies: five trial-based and 12 model-based studies. Two analyses evaluated entire enhanced recovery pathways and reported them to be cost-effective compared with usual care. Ten pathway components were more effective and cost-saving compared with usual care, three were cost-effective, and two were not cost-effective. We had concerns around risk of bias for all included studies, particularly regarding the short time horizon of the trials and lack of reporting of model validation. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent results supported enhanced recovery pathways as a whole, prophylactic systemic antibiotics, antibiotic-impregnated cement and conventional ventilation for infection prevention. No other interventions were subject of more than one study. We found ample scope for future cost-effectiveness studies, particularly analyses of entire recovery pathways and comparison of incremental changes within pathways. A key limitation is that standard practices have changed over the period covered by the included studies. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017059473.

Assessment on patient outcomes of primary hip replacement: an interrupted time series analysis from 'The National Joint Registry of England and Wales'.

OBJECTIVES: Effects of the UK Department of Health's national Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Programme on outcomes after primary hip replacement. DESIGN: Natural experimental study using interrupted time series to assess the changes in trends before, during and after ERAS implementation (April 2009 to March 2011). SETTING: Surgeries in the UK National Joint Registry were linked with Hospital Episode Statistics containing inpatient episodes from National Health Service trusts in England and patient reported outcome measures. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥18 years from 2008 to 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Regression coefficients of monthly means of length of hospital stay, bed day cost, change in Oxford Hip Scores (OHS) 6 months post-surgery, complications 6 months post-surgery and revision rates 5 years post-surgery. RESULTS: 438 921 primary hip replacements were identified. Hospital stays shortened from 5.6 days in April 2008 to 3.6 in December 2016. There were also improvements in bed day costs (£7573 in April 2008 to £5239 in December 2016), positive change in self-reported OHS from baseline to 6 months post-surgery (17.7 points in April 2008 to 22.9 points in December 2016), complication rates (4.1% in April 2008 to 1.7% March 2016) and 5 year revision rates (5.9 per 1000 implant-years (95% CI 4.8 to 7.2) in April 2008 to 2.9 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.9) in December 2011). The positive trends in all outcomes started before ERAS was implemented and continued during and after the programme. CONCLUSIONS: Patient outcomes after hip replacement have improved over the last decade. A national ERAS programme maintained this improvement but did not alter the existing rate of change.

Temporal Trends and Patterns in Mortality After Incident Heart Failure: A Longitudinal Analysis of 86 000 Individuals.

Importance: Despite considerable improvements in heart failure care, mortality rates among patients in high-income countries have changed little since the early 2000s. Understanding the reasons underlying these trends may provide valuable clues for developing more targeted therapies and public health strategies. Objective: To investigate mortality rates following a new diagnosis of heart failure and examine changes over time and by cause of death and important patient features. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based retrospective cohort study analyzed anonymized electronic health records of individuals who received a new diagnosis of heart failure between January 2002 and December 2013 who were followed up until December 2014 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, which links information from primary care, secondary care, and the national death registry from a subset of the UK population. The data were analyzed from January 2018 to February 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression models were used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals comparing 2013 with 2002, adjusting for age, sex, region, socioeconomic status, and 17 major comorbidities. Results: Of 86 833 participants, 42 581 (49%) were women, 51 215 (88%) were white, and the mean (SD) age was 76.6 (12.6) years. While all-cause mortality rates declined only modestly over time (RR comparing 2013 with 2002, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-1.00), underlying patterns presented explicit trends. A decline in cardiovascular mortality (RR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80) was offset by an increase in noncardiovascular deaths (RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.11-1.33). Subgroup analyses further showed that overall mortality rates declined among patients younger than 80 years (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.71-0.88) but not among those older than 80 years (RR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.90-1.06). After cardiovascular causes (898 [43%]), the major causes of death in 2013 were neoplasms (311 [15%]), respiratory conditions (243 [12%]), and infections (13%), the latter 2 explaining most of the observed increase in noncardiovascular mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with a new heart failure diagnosis, considerable progress has been achieved in reducing mortality in young and middle-aged patients and cardiovascular mortality across all age groups. Improvements to overall mortality are hindered by high and increasing rates of noncardiovascular events. These findings challenge current research priorities and management strategies and call for a greater emphasis on associated comorbidities. Specifically, infection prevention presents as a major opportunity to improve prognosis.

The Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine tool to select candidates for hip and knee replacement surgery: development and economic modelling.

BACKGROUND: There is no good evidence to support the use of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in setting preoperative thresholds for referral for hip and knee replacement surgery. Despite this, the practice is widespread in the NHS. OBJECTIVES/RESEARCH QUESTIONS: Can clinical outcome tools be used to set thresholds for hip or knee replacement? What is the relationship between the choice of threshold and the cost-effectiveness of surgery? METHODS: A systematic review identified PROMs used to assess patients undergoing hip/knee replacement. Their measurement properties were compared and supplemented by analysis of existing data sets. For each candidate score, we calculated the absolute threshold (a preoperative level above which there is no potential for improvement) and relative thresholds (preoperative levels above which individuals are less likely to improve than others). Owing to their measurement properties and the availability of data from their current widespread use in the NHS, the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) and Oxford Hip Score (OHS) were selected as the most appropriate scores to use in developing the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE) tool. The change in score and the probability of an improvement were then calculated and modelled using preoperative and postoperative OKS/OHSs and PROM scores, thereby creating the ACHE tool. Markov models were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of total hip/knee arthroplasty in the NHS for different preoperative values of OKS/OHSs over a 10-year period. The threshold values were used to model how the ACHE tool may change the number of referrals in a single UK musculoskeletal hub. A user group was established that included patients, members of the public and health-care representatives, to provide stakeholder feedback throughout the research process. RESULTS: From a shortlist of four scores, the OHS and OKS were selected for the ACHE tool based on their measurement properties, calculated preoperative thresholds and cost-effectiveness data. The absolute threshold was 40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS using the preferred improvement criterion. A range of relative thresholds were calculated based on the relationship between a patient's preoperative score and their probability of improving after surgery. For example, a preoperative OHS of 35 or an OKS of 30 translates to a 75% probability of achieving a good outcome from surgical intervention. The economic evaluation demonstrated that hip and knee arthroplasty cost of < £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year for patients with any preoperative score below the absolute thresholds (40 for the OHS and 41 for the OKS). Arthroplasty was most cost-effective for patients with lower preoperative scores. LIMITATIONS: The ACHE tool supports but does not replace the shared decision-making process required before an individual decides whether or not to undergo surgery. CONCLUSION: The OHS and OKS can be used in the ACHE tool to assess an individual patient's suitability for hip/knee replacement surgery. The system enables evidence-based and informed threshold setting in accordance with local resources and policies. At a population level, both hip and knee arthroplasty are highly cost-effective right up to the absolute threshold for intervention. Our stakeholder user group felt that the ACHE tool was a useful evidence-based clinical tool to aid referrals and that it should be trialled in NHS clinical practice to establish its feasibility. FUTURE WORK: Future work could include (1) a real-world study of the ACHE tool to determine its acceptability to patients and general practitioners and (2) a study of the role of the ACHE tool in supporting referral decisions. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Patients with severe hip and knee arthritis may require joint replacement. General practitioners make the decision to refer patients to hospital based on an assessment of their symptoms. Pain and function can be measured using patient questionnaires and the questionnaire scores can indicate whether or not the severity of disease warrants referral (i.e. whether or not the patient is a candidate for joint replacement based on their 'capacity to benefit'). However, we do not know whether or not basing treatment decisions on such scores is correct, nor do we know what exact pain score thresholds should be used for referral. After a thorough search, we found that the Oxford Hip and Knee Scores were the best instruments. A high score (i.e. a maximum score of 48) indicates less pain and better function. The threshold values for referral for surgery were scores of 40 for hips and 41 for knees. The process of evaluating scoring systems, the choice of scoring systems and the threshold values were discussed and agreed by a panel of patients and by doctors throughout the study. Most patients with severe joint pain benefit from joint replacement, and these operations are cost-effective. However, above a certain level (a score of 40 for hips and 41 for knees), patients are not thought to typically benefit from surgery. Below these values, lower presurgery scores indicate a steadily increasing likelihood of benefit in terms of reduced pain and better function. This information provides the basis for a tool to help doctors decide who to refer for joint replacement: the Arthroplasty Candidacy Help Engine (ACHE). Use of the ACHE tool prevents patients who are unlikely to benefit from joint replacement being referred unnecessarily and allows the NHS to concentrate resources on those who will benefit most from arthroplasty treatment.

Treatment of first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation: the UK TASH-D cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Shoulder dislocations are the most common joint dislocations seen in emergency departments. Most traumatic cases are anterior and cause recurrent dislocations. Management options include surgical and conservative treatments. There is a lack of evidence about which method is most effective after the first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (TASD). OBJECTIVES: To produce UK age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD. To assess whether or not surgery within 6 months of a first-time TASD decreases re-dislocation rates compared with no surgery. To identify clinical predictors of recurrent dislocation. DESIGN: A population-based cohort study of first-time TASD patients in the UK. An initial validation study and subsequent propensity-score-matched analysis to compare re-dislocation rates between surgery and no surgery after a first-time TASD. Prediction modelling was used to identify potential predictors of recurrent dislocation. SETTING: UK primary and secondary care data. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with a first-time TASD between 1997 and 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Stabilisation surgery within 6 months of a first-time TASD (compared with no surgery). Stabilisation surgery within 12 months of a first-time TASD was also carried out as a sensitivity analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Re-dislocation rate up to 2 years after the first TASD. METHODS: Eligible patients were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) (1997-2015). Accuracy of shoulder dislocation coding was internally validated using the CPRD General Practitioner questionnaire service. UK age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD were externally validated against rates from the USA and Canada. A propensity-score-matched analysis using linked CPRD and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data compared re-dislocation rates for patients aged 16-35 years, comparing surgery with no surgery. Multivariable Cox regression models for predicting re-dislocation were developed for the surgical and non-surgical cohorts. RESULTS: Shoulder dislocation was coded correctly for 89% of cases in the CPRD [95% confidence interval (CI) 83% to 95%], with a 'primary' dislocation confirmed for 76% of cases (95% CI 67% to 85%). Far fewer patients than expected received stabilisation surgery within 6 months of a first TASD, leading to an underpowered study. Around 20% of re-dislocation rates were observed for both surgical and non-surgical patients. The sensitivity analysis at 12 months also showed little difference in re-dislocation rates. Missing data on risk factors limited the value of the prediction modelling; however, younger age, epilepsy and sex (male) were identified as statistically significant predictors of re-dislocation. LIMITATIONS: Far fewer than the expected number of patients had surgery after a first-time TASD, resulting in an underpowered study. This and residual confounding from missing risk factors mean that it is not possible to draw valid conclusions. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides, for the first time, UK data on the age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD. Most TASD occurs in men, but an unexpected increased incidence was observed in women aged > 50 years. Surgery after a first-time TASD is uncommon in the NHS. Re-dislocation rates for patients receiving surgery after their first TASD are higher than previously expected; however, important residual confounding risk factors were not recorded in NHS primary and secondary care databases, thus preventing useful recommendations. FUTURE WORK: The high incidence of TASD justifies investigation into preventative measures for young men participating in contact sports, as well as investigating the risk factors in women aged > 50 years. A randomised controlled trial would account for key confounders missing from CPRD and HES data. A national TASD registry would allow for a more relevant data capture for this patient group. STUDY REGISTRATION: Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (ISAC) for the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (ISAC protocol 15_0260). FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (TASD) happens when the top of the arm bone is forced frontwards out of the shoulder socket. After a TASD, the shoulder joint can become 'unstable' and keep dislocating. The main treatments are surgery or physiotherapy; however, we do not know which treatment is best at stopping more dislocations. Two large NHS computer databases were studied to assess this problem. This has allowed us to produce information on the extent of this problem in the UK. We also looked for any differences in the number of people who suffered more shoulder dislocations when treated with either surgery or no surgery. The results showed that young men aged 16­20 years and women aged > 50 years suffer the most with this problem. In young people, the cause is thought to be due to sports injuries. These findings in women aged > 50 years are new and suggest that further research is needed to discover what puts them at a greater risk of TASD. When patients who had surgery and those who did not were compared, there appeared to be no difference in the number of people suffering a re-dislocation. Although, overall, this might suggest that surgery after only one dislocation does not have any extra benefit in preventing more dislocations, this research discovered that important information used to help decide on whether or not surgical treatment is needed is not reported in the databases. Some patients may be at a greater risk of more dislocations than other patients based on risk factors, such as sport and occupation, and this information is not recorded in the NHS databases. Therefore, the research question cannot be answered by studying these NHS databases and so other methods, such as a research trial or a custom database built especially for shoulder dislocation patients, would be needed.

Racial and ethnic disparities in a state-wide registry of patients with pancreatic cancer and an exploratory investigation of cancer cachexia as a contributor to observed inequities.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is characterized by racial/ethnic disparities and the debilitating muscle-wasting condition, cancer cachexia. Florida ranks second in the number of PC deaths and has a large and understudied minority population. We examined the primary hypothesis that PC incidence and mortality rates may be highest among Black Floridians and the secondary hypothesis that biological correlates of cancer cachexia may underlie disparities. PC incidence and mortality rates were estimated by race/ethnicity, gender, and county using publicly available state-wide cancer registry data that included approximately 2700 Black, 25 200 Non-Hispanic White (NHW), and 3300 Hispanic/Latino (H/L) Floridians diagnosed between 2004 and 2014. Blacks within Florida experienced a significantly (P < 0.05) higher incidence (12.5/100 000) and mortality (10.97/100 000) compared to NHW (incidence = 11.2/100 000; mortality = 10.3/100 000) and H/L (incidence = 9.6/100 000; mortality = 8.7/100 000), especially in rural counties. To investigate radiologic and blood-based correlates of cachexia, we leveraged data from a subset of patients evaluated at two geographically distinct Florida Cancer Centers. In Blacks compared to NHW matched on stage, markers of PC-induced cachexia were more frequent and included greater decreases in core musculature compared to corresponding healthy control patients (25.0% vs 10.1% lower), greater decreases in psoas musculature over time (10.5% vs 4.8% loss), lower baseline serum albumin levels (3.8 vs 4.0 gm/dL), and higher platelet counts (332.8 vs 268.7 k/UL). Together, these findings suggest for the first time that PC and cachexia may affect Blacks disproportionately. Given its nearly universal contribution to illness and PC-related deaths, the early diagnosis and treatment of cachexia may represent an avenue to improve health equity, quality of life, and survival.

Using home sensing technology to assess outcome and recovery after hip and knee replacement in the UK: the HEmiSPHERE study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Over 160 000 people with severe hip or knee pain caused by osteoarthritis undergo total hip (THR) or knee replacement (TKR) surgery each year in the UK within the National Health Service (NHS), and this number is expected to increase. Innovative approaches to evaluating surgical outcomes will be needed to respond to the increasing burden of joint replacement surgery. The Sensor Platform for Healthcare in a Residential Environment, Interdisciplinary Research Collaboration (SPHERE-IRC) have developed a system of sensors that can monitor the health-related behaviours of people living at home. The system includes sensors for the home environment (measuring temperature, humidity, room occupancy, water and electricity usage), a wristband body-worn activity monitor and silhouette (body outline) sensors. The aim of HEmiSPHERE (Hip and knEe study of a Sensor Platform of HEalthcare in a Residential Environment) is to (1) determine the accuracy and feasibility of the sensory data as it compares with conventional assessment of health outcomes after surgery using patient self-reported questionnaires, and (2) to explore how the SPHERE system is useful for everyday clinical decision-making. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A feasibility study recruiting and installing the SPHERE system in the homes of up to 30 NHS adult patients as they undergo a THR or TKR. Through a mixed-methods design, the SPHERE system will monitor and record continuous measurements of daily behaviour. Main outcomes will assess the relationships between environmental, behavioural and movement data and the parameters of interest from the standard clinical assessments measuring patient outcomes over time. Patient interviews and focus groups with consultant orthopaedic surgeons will provide in-depth understanding of the acceptability, feasibility and accuracy of the data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We aim to disseminate the findings through regional talks and seminars, international conferences and peer-reviewed journals and social media.